08/04/2011
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On April 8, 2011
We made a profit today with both bets placing. I still can’t believe Mon Parrain did not win. It’s been a very long time since I’ve seen a horse jump like him; today was a fantastic sight. Mon Parrain looked the winner for the entire race, never off the bit; lobbing along; jumped the last 6 lengths clear and even traded at 1.04 on Betfair.
The horse just needs a bit further as he couldn’t quicken up. It was really frustrating not to collect a nice bet, especially as we looked the winner for so long. I’ve received quite a few emails and know several members greened up and collected, but it was a huge shame that the weekend was not paid for with that bet. In the end our risk did return a small profit.
Somersby, well, what can you say? The horse jumped into the lead at 4 out, continued very well, hit the 3rd from last (as he did at Cheltenham) and got going again; running fast at the finish and just missing out on second. It would have been a tough job beating Master Minded but it again shows that the horse is crying out for three miles. Another profit on the bet with the E/W money.
16/03/2011
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On March 16, 2011
Today was a great day for with a cracking profit made around 26pts.
This was always going to be a big day for us with five bets running. Thankfully it worked out well in the end.
The day started well with So Young finishing 3rd for a very small profit. This does not tell the whole story though, as Ruby Walsh rode a stinker. He gets all the praise on Tuesday, but nobody says anything about this effort today. The horse was eight lengths behind when jumping three out. Ruby is cantering on the horse whilst the leaders are going away. Finally, two out, he decides to make headway and So Young makes ground up with ease. That said, it was no easy going; Ruby had to barge his way through and met the last sideways on, royally fluffing it in the process. I can only think Ruby thought he was on a machine. A rare and unfortunate poor ride from a top jumps jockey.
We never got a run with the Giant Bolster who fell early in the race, 3rd fence if I remember correctly. I feel really bad for connections.
We also had Sizing Europe on the cards who bolted up at 10/1, landing us a great bet. Never out of the front two, jumping like a stag, he was brilliant. Just like last year’s Arkle victory, below are the comments we made on him:
I’ve no idea why they tried this horse over three miles, it was certainly a bizarre decision. Remember his solid victory in last year’s Arkle, on drying ground, where he jumped like a stag? Master Minded will not like a drying surface, nor will Big Zeb who won this race last year. When running left-handed tracks, Sizing Europe’s form reads 2113110511. We feel it’s suitable to ignore his last four runs as they have been on right-handed tracks. He’s now back to his optimum trip and where he should show some sound quick jumping. As a result we feel that he is excellent E/W value.
Why they ever tried going three miles with him is beyond me. Sizing Europe is a top class two miler on a left-handed track. I can’t believe he hasn’t run on a left-handed course since last year’s Arkle victory. Today was his first time back. There was never really a moment’s worry as he was running against a field where Master Minded would not take to the ground and is not the horse he was.
Then we had Aegean Dawn running for us. Despite making good headway from the rear he faded two out whilst in 3rd. I’m not sure why he was held up so much; these were different tactics and did not work. You must be handy at Cheltenham over trips of two miles five and under. Maybe there was a problem with him before the weekend, but we take everything Mr Henderson says with a pinch of salt.
Finally, Go All The Way ran in the bumper. We backed this horse last night at 33/1. We knew that there would be money for this horse and we weren’t wrong with him returning 16/1. Go All The Way ran really well and still looked green in the early parts of the race, but he stayed on up the hill and grabbed 4th meaning an 8/1 place winner for us. We’re really pleased with this piece of information as they kept this very quiet and it proved spot on.
January 2011 Review
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On February 2, 2011
After finishing 2010 with a great profit of 146 points, members did not have to wait very long for the first profit and bet of 2011. In fact the very first bet was on New Year’s Day where we backed Rose of the Moon at a huge 16/1. The horse was stepping up in trip and a massive run was expected and as a result there was a lot of support in the betting markets. It was so nearly the perfect start as the horse bounded up the Cheltenham hill passing all but one of her rivals and only failing by a length at the line. The E/W money was landed as we finished 2nd but so close for a great 16/1 payout.
Our next bets added a bit more cash to our client’s banks with 2 winners and 2 losers.
We placed a few antepost bets in December 2010 but both races were postponed due to the bad weather. But finally the King George race went ahead and so did our antepost bet on Riverside Theatre who ran well and finished 2nd retrieving a nice profit from our E/W bet.
We had also pinned a bet on Mille Chief in the Ladbroke Hurdle and unfortunately this race was also lost. Then, three weeks later, Mille Chief routed a field under a top weight and is now fancied for the Champion Hurdle. I am sure that if Mille Chief ran in the Ladbroke we would have collected a great payout as we were on at a large price.
Despite picking up profits on some nice E/W bets, we continued to hit the cross bar. This time it happened on Somersby at 8/1 E/W. Our selection lost out by the shortest of margins to Master Minded. On the finish line Master Minded’s head was down and ours was up and we got done in the photo after trading at 1.05 on Betfair. Yet again, so close. As you will notice, the average price of our selections is around 6/1.
Unfortunately a very similar result followed; after being informed of a huge gamble that was going down at Wincanton. The horse, Hawkaller, from the excellent Anthony Honeyball yard was available at 16/1 when advised and the SP was a much shorter 7/1. At two out it looked like money in the bag as Hawkaller was clear of the field approaching the last. At this point all we needed was a clear jump for a place but disaster struck when the horse stumbled and lost all momentum, eventually finishing 4th in an 18 runner field.
We then backed Angus A Vic at Gowran Park who ran well until two out but faded poorly.
Our final bet of the month was placed on The Giant Bolster at Cheltenham (a course where we get top class information). Clients were clearly instructed this horse is held in the highest regard and is only 7/1 because he is not trained by a fashionable name. Fashionable name or not, The Giant Bolster did the job. After so many close calls at big prices it was a relief that ensured members started the year with a great profit of 10 points (all proofed as usual).
When we started the service we always said we would close membership at a certain figure. That number is low as we are not, and don’t want to be, a huge service small. The membership is now almost full and only a few places remain; once they’ve gone new membership will be postponed.
There is no better time to join with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon. We will be looking to reproduce similar results to last year where we had 9 selections and 7 winners that included 16/1, 9/1, 10/1 and 9/1. Membership will be on a first come first served basis once we are full we are full.
22/01/2011
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On January 22, 2011
We started the day with our bet on Somersby who ran a blinder and, simply put, should have won. Unfortunately the horse made one slight mistake that cost us the race. When jumping the last we were flying, bearing down on Master Minded with every other horse well beaten. As a result Somersby traded at 1.05 on Betfair. One more hit of the whip, one more shake of the reigns and we would have done it, but the post arrived a fraction too early. We were level with Master Minded, but his head was down and ours up losing out on the line by a whisker. One stride after the line Somersby would have been a length clear.
It would have been a great win with near 20 points profit. The amount of big priced runners we’ve backed in the last month that just got touched on the line is unbelievable. On the positive side, we did come home with the E/W money but in comparison to the win it should have been much more.
Master Fiddle ran a poorly, the horse did not stay on with the step up in trip; a big surprise for connections.
With an unlucky morning, it was down to Hawkaller to change the outcome of the day but once again justice was not done. We backed the horse at 16/1 in the morning prior to a huge gamble that went down. This led to the horse being backed right into 6/1 and a realized a great trading option. At two out we looked certain of a big win as it was only us and one other rival in it. Approaching the last we only needed a clear jump for at worst a place, but we crashed through the hurdle as we never taking off and that was that.
With the gamble down the pan it seems the case that both connections and ourselves are leaving money in the pockets of the bookmakers. The information was spot on, and it’s no coincidence that the horse was backed from 16/1 into 6/1.
