12/02/2012
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On February 12, 2012
We backed two horses, Lord Windermere & Last Instalment, who were our first bets of the month.
First up was Lord Windermere who ran a fair race but probably was not quite battle hardened enough for a race of this nature. The horse travelled and jumped well throughout; on the turn for home Lord Windermere moved up into 3rd place on the outside and looked dangerous.
Unfortunately the horse did look to run well enough at the business end of the race. He did not handle the bend and appeared to hang too far to his left. Up the home straight we didn’t really quicken but stayed on nicely with the horse visibly shaking his head.
We think that a nice prize can be won with the horse, but talks of the Supreme at Cheltenham look very optimistic.
Next up was Last Instalment who was a lot shorter than we would normally bet, but the price did look to represent some value. The horse was clearly the best in the race by a long margin. The SP of 8-11 was about correct; we got 5-6 earlier in the day that represented better value.
Last Instalment won nicely, making all and wasn’t headed at any point in the race.
The stakes were given to ensure we made a profit if the first value horse lost. This worked as we had hoped with a 1pt profit made on the day. Admittedly it’s nothing to get excited about but at least we we’re off and running for February.
The cold snap looks to be nearly over and we’re hopeful that we can push on and prepare for Cheltenham. I don’t think we saw any Cheltenham winners at Leopardstown. Last Instalment would have an E/W chance in the RSA but with talks of Grand Crus running, a place would be best could hope for.
Quel Esprit finally won a fair race. He jumped round well despite a bit of pressure. Can’t have the horse for the Gold Cup, however he looks to have stones to find with Long Run & Kauto Star.
15/01/2011
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On January 15, 2011
First up was Khyber Kim, a long time favourite of ours, who, in all fairness, ran a shocker. We spoke with connections last night who said he was beaten after two hurdles and never got going at any point in the race. After the race the jockey commented that even prior to the start something didn’t feel correct.
I wish there was an explanation other than it just looks like the horse had an off day (as we all do at times). Ultimately we had a poor start to the day.
Finally we got around to our antepost bet on Riverside Theatre who ran in the rearranged King George at Kempton Park. I received quite a few emails and texts during the day when the horse hit 16/1 with all the major bookies and even 20/1 on Betfair with just under 5/1 available for the place.
We expressed our opinion that despite the small drift, that was still a big price and it seems quite a few of you went in again, especially on the Betfair place market. Riverside Theatre ran a good race, although that wasn’t the focus of events for 99% of the general betting public, finishing second at 10/1 after receiving another wave of support prior to the start of the race. We achieved an antepost price of 12/1.
The horse lost quite a bit of ground on the turn for home when approaching the lake. It appears that the ground was very soft at this point and as a result he seemed to be wasting energy going nowhere for a few strides, losing 5-6 lengths in the process. On the home straight he stayed on really well, passing the heavily odds-on favourite Kauto Star and finishing a clear second.
The winner, Long Run, was without doubt very impressive. I feel slightly frustrated that despite beating Kauto Star we did not win the race. The jockey, Sam Cohan, who gave Long Run a great winning ride, deserves all the praise. Nevertheless I will still not be backing him in the Gold Cup with Sam on board. The Gold Cup is a rough race where the fences are much tougher and come at you very quickly.
A decent profit was made on the antepost bet and congratulations to those clients that made decent money on the place.
11/11/2010
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On November 11, 2010
Just one bet placed on Long Run, 3pts EW at 4/1. Long Run finished 3rd at 2/1 after a huge amount of cash was placed on track. Long Run ran well but I was disappointed with the performance and jockey. The horse made quite a few mistakes and didn’t look like falling despite still jumping the French way of low and fast. This certainly needs to be sorted if Long Run is ever to fulfil his potential.
Sam Waley-Cohen does not impress me as a jockey. He doesn’t appear to be well balanced in the saddle when jumping. I know he is only an amateur, and his dad owns the horse, but I get the feeling that Long Run needs a stronger and more fluent jockey on-board. He was also not aware of the danger that Little Josh posed after making all and letting him get away.
It’s quite possible that a flatter track such as Aintree will be better suited for Long Run. Ultimately he was fully expected to win today. Maybe he will improve for the run as the winner was race fit. From a betting perspective it was a nothing day as the E/W money returned covered our stake money.
Finally, it's here……..
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On March 15, 2010
The best week of the year has arrived. Welcome all, to the Cheltenham festival.
We’re all puzzling over various several big questions. Are you one of those that have a big ante-post bets burning in your back pocket? Are you going to the festival? Possibly sinking a few beers with the Irish? Will Dunguib win by a mile in the first? What state will the roof be in if it does? Will Kauto win the Gold cup?
The answers will come over the most thrilling four days racing the world has to offer. It does not get any bigger than this.
The majority of our ante-post bets have been placed over the last two weeks. Already we hold some tasty prices that have since been dramatically cut. Do we green up, or do we let it run?
Personally, I choose to let them run.
We will do our very best to update the blog most evenings during the festival, so you can see how we get on. The last couple of weeks have been a bit dull. We’ve had a few bets, both Win and E/W prices, but the horses have just come up short either finishing 2nd, bringing back the stake money, or not quite being asked enough at the finish.
In my opinion, here are a few horse to keep an eye out for:
Ashkazar has been plotted up for the Martin Pipe Hurdle. The horse’s last race was a learning curve for the jockey. Remember this horse was at one time the favourite for the champion hurdle. Ashkazar has slipped to a very good mark and has been backed over the last week by people in the know. This is reflected in the price moving from 33/1 into 7/1.
Long Run goes for the RSA. Make no mistake this is the best horse to come out of France since Kauto Star. If this horse adapts to English fences and jumps cleanly, it will take massive amounts of beating. In time, Long Run will win the Gold Cup.
If you are going to the festival then we here at BetterTipster HQ hope you have a fantastic time. Our main piece of advice is to remember; just because it’s Cheltenham, it does not mean you have to back in every single race. Choose your selections carefully and stick with them.
Big Bucks makes us Big Bucks!
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On December 30, 2009
I hope you have all had a great Christmas and enjoyed the small break.
After two weeks with no real betting opportunities we finally sprung back in to life over the past couple of days. We have had five bets in total since Boxing Day and have collected with three of them. The two that lost though were both a little bit unlucky. One horse was backed from an advised 13/8 into 10/11 SP; a huge gamble, unfortunately the horse only managed to finish 2nd beaten by a length. The horse ran green and lost ground on the bend before flying home. Another couple of strides and I am sure it would have won. We had a small E/W bet on Imperial Commander but his chances went after the 2nd fence when making a terrible error.
The profits still came in after we had a strong notebook winner that bolted up. Long Run, the highly promising French recruit for Nicky Henderson, won with any amount in hand at 6/4. This horse looks like it will go to the very top. In addition to this we had a near max bet today on Big Bucks.
It’s very rare that we ever back odds on shots on this service, but sometimes they do represent value. Today was one of those days and the opportunity arose in the form of Big Bucks. I had the price around 1/3 and so did our form guy so the freely available price of 1/2 was well worth taking. Plenty had been made of Diamond Harry’s chances but let’s not forget that Big Bucks is already a world hurdle winner whilst Diamond Harry was a novice last year. The result was never in doubt with Big Bucks coming clear at the finish.
I had one of my largest ever bets on Big Bucks which was £1400 win (see below screen shot).
It was great to see the race ran at Newbury and thanks must also go to Racing UK for showing all the action free today on sky, and also a mention is due for Leopardstown racecourse who got the Lexus ran today despite the fog that came down yesterday.
Just for good measure members are always given thoughts of the big race of the day even if we are not betting in it. The horse What A Friend was passed on as the most likely winner and the horse that finished 2nd, Money Trix, is one of our notebook horses. First and Second place, not bad tipping!
