19/08/2011
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On August 19, 2011
We placed a late bet on Bated Breath as we wanted to watch the 15:05 as connections of Penitent informed us the jockey had been instructed to race up the far side on the fresh ground. We thought that Penitent ran a solid race and was in front when approaching the two pole. It was not until the furlong marker that Penitent was caught, but we think this is as a result of stamina running out following the step-up in trip. On face value the ground looked ok, hence the bet on Bated Breath.
Bated Breath jumped the gates well and led the far side runners until the two pole. Just inside the two furlong marker it all went pear-shaped as the stand-side runners went past with ease whilst the other horses, including Bated Breath, were going backwards on the new ground. Unfortunately the rather large draw bias seemed to have doomed us as soon as we selected a side. A quick recap with connections revealed that the jockey, Steven Drowne, was very happy until two out and was of the opinion that Bated Breath would have gone very close until hitting the change in ground.
Bated Breath was backed heavily before the off as both connections and ourselves thought that the 9/1 with Bet365 was great value. The eventual SP was 9/2. We took a bit of a gamble with Bated Breath but it did not pay-off. The winner, Margot Did, is not a Group 1 horse and has only one a few soft listed races. Margot Did was fortunate in being on the better side of the draw and running with the early pace, nothing was coming from off the pace as we thought. Put a line through this form as we do not feel it representative of the horse’s true capabilites.
The meeting is turning into a bookies dream following today’s results at 33/1, 20/1 and 18/1. This follows on from some big prices yesterday. It’s a great shame that another big UK meeting has been undermined by a draw bias over sprint distances. We think that the ground is responsible as York is usually very fair. I don’t think that we’ll be rushing into bets at York tomorrow as the ring is ankle deep in ripped up tickets at the moment.
July Review
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On August 1, 2011
Time for the July review now. This month saw some big meetings with Newmarket, Sandown & Glorious Goodwood all taking place. It was a really tough month that’s for sure with plenty of bizarre results. Horses that shouldn’t have been winning were, but thanks to the draw bias now playing a huge part at the major meetings it makes life very tough for Joe Punter. It seems that nearly all of the big expensive services had significant losses in July. At the end of June we were aiming for 7 out of 7 winning months so far this year; so did we manage it? Lets take a look.
The month started with two E/W bets at Newmarket. The first was on Mijhaar in what turned out to be one of the biggest gambles of the year so far. Clients were instructed that the horse had in upwards of 10lb in hand on his current rating and a solid E/W bet was recommend in a huge field. After members had placed their bets the money really arrived; 4/1 into 13/8 favourite. The horse was totally smashed up in the betting as a result of a country-wide gamble. Mijhaar looked the winner of the race as soon as the stalls opened; travelling on-the-bit until the furlong pole and quickening clear by three lengths. The money was surely won, but, Mijhaar just idled in front and got caught on the line by Fulgar.
The groans at the race track could be heard from the TV and a huge gamble was foiled by a very short margin. Stakes were returned from the E/W part of the bet but this is one big gamble that should have really paid off for a handsome return. We then had another E/W bet at Newmarket again but the horse could only make the place to return our stake money.
A couple of weeks before the meeting we backed Bated Breath antepost for the July Cup at 10/1 E/W. Once again the curse of 2nd place did us as Bated Breath went clear at the furlong pole but got caught late by Dream Ahead. Money was made on the place but we were so close to another huge antepost payout.
A quiet spell then came along with no bets for just over a week but we came back into action with both Sardanapalus & Stormy Weather winning for us at 7/2 by a distance. Two more bets were placed in the following week with Present Your Case landing a nice bet and Dominant a loss only manaing to place 3rd.
We placed just one bet at Goodwood on Beyond Desire at 14/1 E/W. The horse was backed into 9/1 at the off the and we were confident that we’d at least get a place and a good E/W profit. Unfortunately Beyond Desire received a big bump at the two pole and lost 3 lengths in the process. The horse battled back into 3rd but got collared in the last stride for the place money. Beyond Desire was only beaten by 4 lengths in total and I can’t help but feel that if we had a clear run the horse would have gone very close.
The month finished on a high with Bop It, advised at 11/4, winning easily for us at Hamilton. We were informed by connections that the horse is far better than this grade and a win was confidently expected. Bop It did not let us down and a good gamble was landed after our 11/4 was backed into 2/1.
We placed just 12 bets in July; four 1sts, four E/W places and a total profit of just under 10pts. After a very hard month, where the majority lost. we did it again with a solid profit. This helps maintain our amazing record of producing a profit in every single month this year! We don’t think any of the big tipping services can boast this sort of record.
02/04/2011
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On April 2, 2011
It was a nice day for us with Eton Forever winning very easily at 10/1. It was an extra bonus with the BOG offers from the bookies.
Eton Forever broke very well, the draw did favour the high runners but even if in stall one I think our bet would have won. Eton Forever never came off the bit and was cantering into the final furlong; quickening away in style and winning by 7 lengths. Really pleased with the info on this one, nobody seemed to know the horse had a wind-op and had been working well with Laaheb.
But then we had the typical flat season zero run for our money after a disgraceful ride from Steve Drowne on Bated Breath. Make no mistake that this is a group horse in a listed race; it should have won this race easily. The horse had a plum draw but broke well only to get held back a ridiculous amount. This allowed the other runners to cross over in front and we ended up last from the best draw.
At no point in the race did Bated Breath have any room, he was was completely boxed in. The race was lost before the furlong pole. It was a good day and a nice profit made but this final performance does take some of the pleasure out of it. This race epitomizes why I prefer jumps racing. The draw played a huge factor in one of the top meetings and not for the first time. If not drawn high, you can’t win! In my opinion this is unacceptable and is a similar case to the Guineas last year.
