29/10/2011
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On October 29, 2011
Our selection, Air Force One, unfortuntely broke down early-on in the race; a long-term injury from the past bled caused the horse to go lame.
It’s more than likely the horse will now be found a new home as it can no longer handle the pressure of racing. It’s a huge shame as Charlie Mann and the owners have been ever so patient with the horse whilst owners kept paying the bills for a year or so without getting any runs. His work last week at Kempton got everybody at the yard buzzing but it was not to be. As we mentioned yesterday, the bet was risky but with the mark the horse was running off and work at Kempton the previous week Air Force One had to be backed.
On a more positive note the just info did a bit better with a 5/1 winner in Slumber who did make all. Red Cadeaux again worked very well over in Melbourne yesterday; jockey Michael Rodd is growing more positive each day. We need the rain to keep coming down. It was interesting to watch Matt Chapman put him up as his selection for the race on ATR yesterday. An Aussie guy who was interviewed also liked the horse; keep everything crossed.
25/10/2011
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On October 25, 2011
We backed Carpincho 2pts E/W at 4/1, general 7/2. Carpincho was backed all day long, including at the track, and returned a very warm 13/8 favourite. From the off our selection jumped poorly, making mistake after mistake, whilst pulling jockey A P McCoy hands off Carpincho would not settle. Despite the poor jumping we stayed well in contention and still looked a big danger when AP moved the horse up a couple lengths behind the leader when jumping 5 out.
It was on jumping 5 out our race was over as Carpincho pecked badly on landing, losing momentum and all chance. Despite this the horse plugged on valiantly and finished 5th.
Things are not quite going our way at the moment; after turning the month around last weekend from twelve pts down into 5pts up, we’re now just over seven points down.
Looking back at the horses that have ran disappointingly, they were all first time out runners that either lacked the fitness or pulled too hard. Today’s bet was as fit as a flee and also expected to win, hence the yard having a good bet, however the poor jumping was not part of the plan. From our perspective everything appeared in order; the trainer was in form whilst the horse has won twice, including on his seasonal reappearance.
At the end of the day we are between 7 and 8 points in the red for the month. It’s not good, but it’s also not the end of the world as profits from previous months more than cover for it. We’re certainly not going to chase any losses and end up worse off, however we will be more cautious with our betting strategy for the rest of the month. It would be better leaving first time out runners for another couple of weeks until some decent grass work is done.
We still have seven days left to get the money that we lent back and, rest assured, we will be trying extremely hard to get it.
The just info horse from the Anthony Honeyball yard was second at 9/1.
Below is the Racing Post’s comment on today’s bet. We think it sums it up perfectly:
Carpincho, winner of a point/bumper and over hurdles, was well backed on this first run back and initial outing over regulation fences. He didn´t help his rider by failing to settle under restraint and failed to convince with his jumping.
23/10/2011
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On October 23, 2011
We backed Royal Guardsman on Sunday. Back in March, on the run up to Cheltenham, this horse was beating Cue Card on the gallops and won it’s only race by 14 lengths; beating some highly regarded animals in the process. Royal Guardsman had still been showing massive potential at home. Colin Tizzard is not a foolish trainer and knows when he has a good horse.
In the race our bet pulled a bit too hard early-on but did settle after a couple of furlongs. At three out Joe Tizzard made his move. Royal Guardsman cruised up to the leader in a matter of strides and traded very short in-running. It looked as if we would go clear and win easily but, in a similar situation to that with Rebel Rebellion, the horse did not find much on the run in and faded. It did not help that when we were battling for the lead Royal Guardsman got smacked three times across the nose by the other jockey’s whip. Jason was not entirely sure if the reason for the loss was whether the horse blew up or threw in the towel, as he undoubtedly faded after getting smacked.
In the previous race Colin Tizzard had another well fancied runner who was going very well then slowed down to a walking pace. Although the whip on the nose would have not done our selection any good, I don’t think the trainer’s horses are as far forward as we initially thought.
The winner of the race had already run three times so his fitness might have surpassed that of Royal Guardsman. The owners of the winner also have a horse with Anthony Honeyball. We spoke with the team there in the morning; they said that they would be happy with a top 6 finish and did not think that it was up to this class.
22/10/2011
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On October 22, 2011
We placed three bets over the weekend that resulted in a loss of 8pts.
We started with Al Kazeem, advised to 2pts win. Going into the race the trainer, Roger Charlton, was confident of a first group victory for the horse as he had been working very well and, on the form, the opposition had plenty to find.
The race was ran at a slow pace that did not suit Al Kazeem, hoowever at two out the jockey Steve Drowne made his move and let our selection go on. The horse made ground up very easily; hitting the front just outside the furlong pole and it looked like an easy win was on the cards. That was until Beaten Up drew alongside and cantered past Al Kazeem, winning as he liked with a lot left in the tank.
On his form, Beaten Up had to improve a lot in order to take a hand in this race. It has since become apparent that he had both improved and done a lot more. Beaten Up looks a high class animal who we will be hearing a lot about in the future. Except fo this hiccup Al Kazeem ran a sound race. The 3rd placed horse was way back and we were just unfortunate that we bumped into what looks like a very good horse on the day.
Next up was Rebel Rebellion who we backed 1pt E/W. During the race the horse both travelled and jumped beautifully; you can see why his future will be over fences. At four out the pace quickened and despite being at the rear of the main pack we were still going very well. The horse made up ground with ease. When jumping three out it again looked liked we would be going close. Things went downhill from here and at two out Rebel Rebellion blew up in a matter of strides; going from travelling on full to empty.
Jockey Daryl Jacob thought that he would have gone very close at three out but a lack of fitness was our downfall in the end. Although the horse had been targeted for this race, a few of Paul Nicholls horses are finding nothing at the finish, including Master Minded. A recent lack of rain is not helping our cause as horses can’t be worked on grass. Rebel Rebellion will be much fitter next time over fences; it will be only be money lent as Paul really rates this horse.
Something strange happened at the weigh-in as Rebel Rebellion was actually disqualified from 6th position and placed last. We have tried to find out and heard that the jockey weighted-in light by a fair few pounds, though this has not been confirmed. Therefore the loss could have been a blessing in disguise; if the horse had won the race and we had not collected because of failing at the weigh-in we would probably have much harsher words to say.
20/10/2011
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On October 20, 2011
We placed our first account bet of the week on Good Authority, trained by the up and coming Karen George. We backed the horse at evens and above at 4pts win. The horse won easily at 8/11, backed very heavily by connections.
The race itself was very straight forward. The horse outclassed the field and won in a canter. Darryll Holland did hold Good Authority up but was much closer this time in 4th behind the leaders. On the turn for home the jockey pulled the horse out for a clear run and Good Authority put the race to bed quickly after going clear.
The price was much shorter than what we usually play at, but sometimes these skinny ones do represent value.
