30/10/2010
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On October 30, 2010
Today started well with the ‘Just Info’ horse, Alegralil, winning at 7/2 after being backed well prior to the off.
However it’s the account bets that matter and despite running well our bets couldn’t finish first. Ollie Magern was up first. The horse ran a very game race; leading from the off until the last fence. Ollie Magern jumped well and put in a great effort. When jumping the last he looked certain to get a place but unfortunately was headed for 3rd place. Paddy Brennan said on his return to the weighing room that he could have finished second if not for trying to keep up with the brilliant performance of Nacarat. Ollie Magern was in the race to win and it showed when Nacarat drew-up along sides Paddy Brennan but unfortunately Ollie Magern couldn’t perform to the same level. I’m sure that a more reserved running style could have got second or, at worst, third. The horse deserved a place at worst for his performance that out-matched the more favoured runners.
Our second bet was on Lucky William. In all honesty I don’t think he was given a good ride from two out. Lucky William was travelling behind the leaders but was not pressured for an extra effort until the last fence. Approaching the last the horse was on a fine jumping line but for some reason two strides before the fence the jockey switched the horse to the inside resulting in a slow jump. Lucky William got going again and hit the front (trading short on Betfair), but we got caught by the fast finishing winner in the last few strides and ultimately finished second. There’s nothing wrong when a jockey finishes with some to spare, but it’s all too common that it ends up back-firing. The horse should have won the race.
Our last runner was Aather, who we backed at 8/1. Our selection was a big gamble and went into 9/2 before drifting on track. Aather was held up as we knew he would be jumping well. The race was lost on the bend; Timmy Murphy was a little short of room and lost quite a few crucial places. After moving the horse out, Timmy Murphy made up the ground to draw level going into the last. This took up vital energy and Aather faded on the run in to finish 4th. I believe that Aather would not have won the race regardless, but it would be nice to see a more closely fought battle from our final bet of the day.
All the horses ran well but it just did not go our way with a second and two fourth placed runners. A place on Lucky William at a nice 12/1 E/W or Aather 8/1 E/W would have been nice, but unfortunately you just have to accept whatever this games throws at you.
23/10/2010
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On October 23, 2010
A reasonable profit was made yesterday from our two account bets; one winner and one second place.
Our first bet at Stratford was On Borrowed Wings from the Alan Fleming yard. Timmy Murphy gave the horse a very canny hold up ride; last all the way round until two out where Timmy asked the horse to quicken. On Borrowed Wings made up the ground easily and drew level at the last before going away to win on the run in. This is our first bet of the season from this yard and a winning one at that.
Our second bet was on Captain Chris who finished 2nd. The issue here was that the ground changed significantly at Chepstow between the time we sent out the selection and the race-off. The rain was pouring and as a result the going changed to soft. Captain Chris was nearly pulled out by the trainer, but a late decision was made to run.
The run by Captain Chris was ok, but the conditions meant that the ground underneath was very sticky. Richard Johnson let the horse come home in his own time. At the last he gave it a few slaps to secure second place. This is not the true form of the horse and a totally different prospect will be seen on a firmer going.
The just info has also been performing well with many winners; 8/1, 7/2, 5/2 and many more. Yesterday’s just info was also reasonable with Hibiki cantering too victory. I think if Ruby Walsh was on Poquelin, the horse would have won as he should have been pushed on at two out when approaching Monet’s Garden. Medermit also won easily at short odds. The only horse that let the side down was Quintessentially who ran a poor race but was well backed.
Tim Vaughan would have been disappointed with his runners. Alverstone won at a nice price and he also had the second place, but as for the jockey on Bens Moor, I did not think he stayed the three miles.
21/10/2010
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On October 21, 2010
Presenting Forever was our only bet today and it duly won for us after leading the whole race, never headed.
There was good money for the horse and after being backed all day long it returned an SP of 6/5. It is pleasing that we are getting the bigger prices on all of our selections before everybody else gets on. Presenting Forever jumped really well and was not in any trouble throughout the entire race. The horse did tire a little towards the end, but that’s not surprising as this race was its first run. The horse did not look in danger of been over taken at any point.
Keep with Presenting Forever as the staying races in the North of the country are not the best. As I have mentioned before, the plan is for this horse to run up a sequence of wins before travelling southwards for the better races.
As a word of advice, you will notice a trend with our jumps bets. Around 90% of the time the odds of our selections will shorten quite significantly. This leaves a good option of trading out for a guaranteed profit. This means that regardless of the result we make a profit. Alternatively lay to an equal stake as the back bet and make no loss if the horse wins (except commission), but take a large profit if the horse wins. I am aware of two members that make decent money purely trading our selections.
18/10/2010
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On October 18, 2010
We placed two account bets on the 18th with one winner and one loser. Give or take a few pence the bets, we broke even.
Our first bet was on San Silvestro who was largely expected to show a big improvement on his first run for Tim Vaughan. The horse travelled well and stayed in third position for the majority of the race until the pack reached three out and the pace began to quicken. At this point, San Silvestro was caught flat footed. The horse kept plugging on at the same, slightly slower, pace until jumping the last where he picked up and finished quickly. Unfortunately it was all was too late.
Mentioned in the email, the trip over two miles was thought to be suited to the horse but unfortunately we got this one wrong. Richard Johnson expects that the horse needs a step up in trip. The trainer does not usually make mistakes but this call disappointed the owners as well. San Silvestro will be aimed at a recovery mission in a few weeks over a further distance.
We also backed Sean Og who bolted up with any amount in hand. I suppose in hindsight we could have just backed this one considering the slight question mark over the trip for San Silvestro but hindsight is a wonderful tool. Sean Og was backed heavily and returned 8/11 after we backed the horse at 10/11. The horse hit the front at 3 from out and won in a canter.
15/10/2010
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On October 15, 2010
We got done on the line (again) after our selection, El Muqbil, traded at 1/40 on Betfair. El Muqbil looked like the winner from three out, bobbing along on-the-bit and hit the front inside the final furlong going a couple of lengths clear. The horse hung briefly once in front but allowed Argocat to get up back to us. We ended up been collared on the line with the rest of the field very much beaten.
Over the last six days all of our last three bets had the win stolen from them on the finish. Today’s selection was 2nd which follows the trend with Ayam Zainah (E/W @ 7/1, 2nd) and last weekend’s Dunowen Point 2nd who, again, traded at heavily odds-on. The difference between these three coming second and winning has cost us around 15 points profit. 15 points profit in a week is great by any standards and you can see our misfortune. All the selections are running very well whilst being heavily backed. We just need a tiny bit of luck on our side.
